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IHME COVID-19 Forecasts

As part of AOTMiT’s international collaboration, weekly papers on the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Poland, Europe, and the Visegrad region were prepared based on forecast analyses by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle.


The authors included data on SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus variant transmissibility in their forecasts.


The current model describes 3 possible scenarios, each taking into account vaccine distribution and the effects of the spread of existing and new COVID-19 variants. Below is a detailed description of these scenarios:

  • Reference scenario: the most likely one based on the current rate of vaccination, as well as the transmissibility of existing and new variants (B.1.1.7; B.1.351; P1).
  • Worse scenario: assumes an increase in mobility towards pre-pandemic levels among vaccinated individuals, as well as mobility of unvaccinated individuals consistent with the pre-pandemic seasonality pattern.
  • Universal mask use scenario: based on the same assumptions as the reference scenario while also assuming that the use of protective masks in every public space location will be at a 95% level.


We encourage you to review the following materials: