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IHME COVID-19 Forecasts

As part of AOTMiT’s international collaboration, weekly papers based on prognostic analyses from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle were prepared on the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Poland, Europe, and the countries of the Visegrad Group.


The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has published the latest predictive analyses of the further evolution of COVID-19 considering the impact of the spread of the Omicron variant. The current estimates present three possible event scenarios:

  1. Most likely scenario (reference scenario): Vaccine distribution remains at current levels. Vaccine efficacy specific to their brands and virus variants is updated using the latest available information from peer-reviewed publications and other reports. The use of protective masks in the population is reaching the assumed average (calculated based on the level of use for the last seven days). The level of mobility increases in proportion to the level of vaccination. The omicron variant spreads as assumed by the model. In countries where this is possible, 80% of those previously vaccinated receive a booster dose no later than after six months.
    2. 80% protective mask use scenario: Same assumptions as the reference scenario, with the inclusion of protective mask use at 80% of the last seven-day average. If mask use reaches a level higher than 80% at a given location, it does not change.
    3. Antiviral drug access scenario: Adopts all the same assumptions as the reference scenario, but additionally assumes global distribution of antivirals and expansion of coverage to all low- and middle-income countries between August 15 and September 30, 2022.


*Ladies and Gentlemen

we would like to inform you that the materials and results of the discussions posted on the Agency’s website are the result of the conceptual work and analytical process carried out by the team of the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System based on the EBM paradigm, including: search, selection, synthesis and interpretation of scientific evidence, or the data analysis carried out.

In connection with the above, we would like to inform you that analytical material or the results of the discussions, in accordance with good practice, should be used with attribution to source in the following format: [title of presentation/report], AOTMiT, Warsaw, June 2021]


Review the materials below: